The Richter Scale^®

If memory serves, it was ten years ago today, on the anniversary of Pearl Harbor Day, no less, that Microsoft woke up to the threat and potential of the Internet, and started its shift towards trying to dominate the Internet in all its incarnations in what has become known as Bill Gates’ “Tidal Wave” speech. It was also the same day Microsoft announced it had licensed Java from Sun Microsystems.

My how things have changed. So, how have they done in those ten years since December 7, 1995?

In my estimation, Microsoft has not done too badly. They went from underdog (a surprising term to use in the context of Microsoft) in the web browser market to pretty much obliterating market leader Netscape. They have made significant inroads in the installed base of web servers using Microsoft operating systems (although I believe Linux still has the majority), and with .NET and web services, look to slowly be steamrolling into dominance in that new market.

But all this connectivity and dominance has come at a price. Dominance creates a target, and in the case of Microsoft’s Internet strategy, the target is system security. Microsoft’s Internet enabled products, and their desire to extend standards with arguably powerful but proprietary features, combined with the sheer amount of programming involved, has led to an incredible number of security holes which nefarious hackers are constantly looking to exploit. So, while Microsoft’s operating system runs on the vast majority of personal computers in use today, so do today’s zombies, malware, spyware, and viruses.

The Apple Mac crowd chortles over this as proof that the Mac is superior to Wintel, but they only have the enviable position of being relatively infestation free because Apple has such small market share. It’s not clear to me whether the Intel-based Apple products due out next year will become a bigger target for writers of nefarious code, however.

The biggest threats to Microsoft’s continued efforts at Internet dominance take many forms, including from small but powerful on-going anti-Microsoft sentiment spurred on by fear of what a true monopoly might impose on its users resulting in people using things like the Firefox web browser and Thunderbird e-mail client software (both excellent pieces of software, incidentally).

And witness the recent decisions in Massachusetts and elsewhere to go with open standards for office productivity software. Other threats include the proliferation of computer devices with niche focus, such as cell phones and cell/PDAs in which Microsoft is still a bit player. And then there are platform companes such as Google and even eBay (hey - they bought Skype - that’s not a pure-auction house strategy in my book).

It stunned me to read on some blog comment recently (and sorry, I didn’t take a link) where someone was happy that Microsoft was out there to stop Google. Used to be the other way around.

I’ll admit I have no idea what the next 10 years will hold for Microsoft, but 10 years ago I would have never guessed that they would have been so successful in turning around the focus of the entire company either. But back then, Microsoft was the underdog. Now everyone else is…